Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:31:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

98
0x9859…7012
politics · 208 markets active 2h ago
6.0score
+$5,089 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,088 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,543
Realized+$5,088
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses60 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions3
Markets (closed)205 / 208
History coverage138d
Avg bet$1,518
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 3 History 205 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$11
14 days+$19
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,298 $1,298 −$1 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $153 $154 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $91 $91 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,918 −$5 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,683 −$4 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $2,779 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,305 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $2,108 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,304 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,513 −$5 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $4,359 −$5 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,681 −$6 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $76 +$56 +73%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $7,135 −$10 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $3,530 −$4 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $85 −$85 -100%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $2,159 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $3,597 −$6 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,616 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,083 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $37 +$25 +67%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $47 +$97 +206%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $4,770 −$5 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $516 $0 +0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $4,297 −$5 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $923 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $4,482 −$7 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $746 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $786 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $3,669 −$5 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 29 $1,845 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $4,868 −$5 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $3,420 −$4 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,031 −$2 -0%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 26 $52 +$64 +124%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,497 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $2,359 −$3 -0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $7,759 −$8 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $56 +$97 +172%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,234 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $73 +$71 +97%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $2,293 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $2,313 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $2,625 −$4 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $1,362 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $3,591 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 44% −$163
other 31% +$119
sports 14% +$4,825
culture 5% −$17
crypto 2% +$339
economics 2% −$5
world 1% −$4
tech 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,299 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,198 19h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,200 28h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,301 30h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,303 32h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,306 47h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,308 2d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,303 2d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,305 2d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,307 2d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,309 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,302 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,304 3d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,211 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,213 4d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,313 4d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,315 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $153 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,467 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,470 5d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,471 5d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,472 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,116 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,117 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,199 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,201 7d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 57¢ $76 7d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $934 8d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $935 8d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $924 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +6.5% -3.6% 9% 9% -9.5%
≤30d 54 +9.9% -0.6% 13% 11% -9.4%
≤90d 154 +0.3% -9.3% 21% 19% -8.9%
all 205 +5.9% -4.2% 29% 20% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 20% -8.1%
10% -13.4% 20% -16.9%
15% -21.7% 18% -24.9%
20% -29.4% 14% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,542.84 · official $1,542.84 (match) · 864 history records