Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:25:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9856…8399 other 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$13 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate56%18W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$3,072now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$4
tech 33% −$2
crypto 0% −$6
sports 0% −$12
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -19.6% -27.3% 60% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 12 +9.6% -0.9% 75% 8% -9.6%
all 32 -19.4% -27.0% 56% 22% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 22% -9.8%
10% -34.0% 22% -18.4%
15% -40.4% 16% -26.3%
20% -46.2% 9% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$3,072
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage456d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,073 $3,072 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 27 $3,077 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25? May 25 $3 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 18-24? May 25 $3 $0 +1%
Will Germany be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 16? May 18 $3 $0 +2%
Will Albania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 18 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 30 $2 +$6 +306%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw? Mar 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Wrexham AFC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw? Feb 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Santos FC end in a draw? Feb 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will KRC Genk win on 2026-01-29? Feb 02 $3 +$1 +39%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 23 $3,022 −$3 -0%
Solana Up or Down on January 11? Jan 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gabon win on 2025-12-24? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 22 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 22 $4 +$2 +35%
Will SS Lazio win on 2025-12-07? Dec 08 $2 +$1 +59%
NBA Playoffs: Cavaliers vs. Pacers (To Advance) Nov 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Krzysztof Stanowski be the next President of Poland? Nov 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 4? Nov 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NDP win 9 or less seats in the next Canadian Election? Nov 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2025-10-23? Nov 21 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $3 +$2 +64%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? May 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in March? Apr 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will El Salvador/Bukele launch a memecoin before April? Apr 14 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,073 19m
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3,073 1h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,077 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $4 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? BUY No 23¢ $3 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $1 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 31? BUY No 99¢ $3 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 37d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 18-24? BUY No 99¢ $3 37d
Will Germany be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 16? BUY No 98¢ $3 44d
Will Albania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? BUY No 99¢ $5 44d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd BUY TheMongolz 51¢ $2 94d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 94d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 122d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? BUY No 41¢ $1 122d
Will Wrexham AFC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 134d
Will KRC Genk win on 2026-01-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 150d
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Santos FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 150d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $3,019 155d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $3,022 155d
Solana Up or Down on January 11? BUY Down 60¢ $1 167d
Will Gabon win on 2025-12-24? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 185d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 BUY No 74¢ $2 192d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 BUY No 74¢ $4 192d
Will SS Lazio win on 2025-12-07? BUY No 63¢ $2 203d
Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2025-10-23? BUY No 75¢ $2 247d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 61¢ $3 414d
NBA Playoffs: Cavaliers vs. Pacers (To Advance) BUY Cavaliers 37¢ $2 416d
Will Krzysztof Stanowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 417d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,071.64 · official $3,071.64 (match) · 66 history records