trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +5.1% | -4.9% | 80% | 20% | -4.8% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +5.1% | -4.9% | 80% | 20% | -4.8% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +5.1% | -4.9% | 80% | 20% | -4.8% |
| all | 5 | +5.1% | -4.9% | 80% | 20% | -4.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -4.9% | 20% | -4.8% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -14.0% | 0% | -13.9% |
| 15% | -22.3% | 0% | -22.2% |
| 20% | -30.0% | 0% | -29.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 71¢ | 82¢ | $10 | $12 | +$2 (+16%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 99¢ | $7 | $7 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 13¢ | 12¢ | $7 | $7 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 77¢ | 73¢ | $6 | $6 | −$0 (-5%) |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? | Yes | 18¢ | 20¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+8%) |
| Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+1%) |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? | No | 79¢ | 80¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? | Yes | 91¢ | 90¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-1%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? | No | 70¢ | 68¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? | Yes | 75¢ | 71¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 16 | $15 | +$1 | +4% |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? | Jun 15 | $5 | +$1 | +14% |
| Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? | Jun 15 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 15 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | Jun 15 | $15 | +$1 | +6% |