Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:06:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9852…f717 world 24 markets active 3d ago coverage 443d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$1
other 16% $0
politics 5% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.8% -8.8% 75% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.3%
all 24 -0.0% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

443d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage443d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $75 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $35 +$1 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $39 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $35 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $69 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $35 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? Jun 24 $11 $0 -1%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 08 $2 $0 -0%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $12 $0 +4%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 29 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $39 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $7 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $18 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $29 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $39 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $39 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $7 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 17¢ $6 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $3 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $31 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $35 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $15 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $20 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $35 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $35 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $35 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $35 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $4 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $4 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 80 history records