trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate? | Kamala | 96¢ | 100¢ | $11,595 | $12,129 | +$535 (+5%) |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" 5+ times during the X space? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | $6,955 | $10,995 | +$4,040 (+58%) |
| Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Yes | 73¢ | 0¢ | $19,984 | $0 | −$19,984 (-100%) |
| No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $1,200 | $0 | −$1,200 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Sep 18 | $1,200 | −$1,200 | -100% |
| Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate? | Sep 17 | $76,091 | +$2,571 | +3% |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" 5+ times during the X space? | Sep 16 | $6,955 | +$4,040 | +58% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Sep 16 | $9,775 | $0 | +0% |
| Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate? | Sep 12 | $181,930 | +$239,821 | +132% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Sep 11 | $131,860 | −$308 | -0% |
| Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Aug 03 | $19,984 | −$19,984 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 7 | +1.7% | -8.0% | 43% | 43% | +46.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -8.0% | 43% | +46.5% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -16.8% | 29% | +32.5% |
| 15% | -24.8% | 29% | +19.7% |
| 20% | -32.2% | 29% | +7.9% |