Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:41:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x984f…ba69 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$91 (-26%) realized −$95 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%2W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$22
14 days−$106
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$5
politics 35% −$95
world 7% +$5
finance 3% −$6
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -31.0% -37.6% 0% 0% -36.8%
≤30d 14 -26.4% -33.4% 14% 14% -53.5%
≤90d 14 -26.4% -33.4% 14% 14% -53.5%
all 14 -26.4% -33.4% 14% 14% -53.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.4% 14% -53.5%
10% -39.8% 7% -58.0%
15% -45.6% 7% -62.0%
20% -50.9% 0% -65.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses2 / 12
Open positions13
Markets (closed)14 / 27
History coverage12d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $23 $28 +$6 (+25%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 32¢ 29¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in July 2026? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 45¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $26 −$7 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $10 −$2 -21%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 19 $7 −$1 -19%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $10 −$6 -61%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31? Jun 19 $3 −$1 -32%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -56%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $4 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $19 +$2 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $16 +$7 +46%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $110 −$93 -85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $48 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $19 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $19 15h
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June BUY Yes 32¢ $6 25h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 25h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 25h
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027? BUY Yes $1 25h
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in July 2026? BUY Yes $3 25h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 25h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 25h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $5 25h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 25h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 25h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $16 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes 23¢ $6 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 27¢ $2 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL Yes $0 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 27¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.90 · official $135.90 (match) · 47 history records