Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x984f…8459 crypto 197 markets active 2h ago coverage 414d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$432 (-13%) realized −$430 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate55%100W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$72
14 days−$103
30 days−$479
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$451
other 4% −$15
sports 4% −$22
politics 0% −$6
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -19.8% -27.4% 44% 33% -45.4%
≤30d 158 -11.2% -19.7% 56% 44% -23.7%
≤90d 158 -11.2% -19.7% 56% 44% -23.7%
all 182 -10.1% -18.7% 55% 43% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 43% -23.7%
10% -26.5% 31% -31.0%
15% -33.6% 25% -37.7%
20% -40.1% 17% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$13 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

414d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$430
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses100 / 82
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)182 / 197
History coverage414d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 59¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 53¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 47¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+100%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 22¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? No 1¢ 18¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+1660%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +262%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -28%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -44%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $1 $0 +23%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$3 +65%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$6 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$10 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$17 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -10%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 $0 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 $0 +21%
Cattolica: Pierluigi Basile vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +14%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +26%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $1 −$1 -61%
Libema Open (Doubles): Goransson/King vs Balaji/Ram Jun 08 $3 −$3 -99%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 08 $7 +$2 +24%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -25%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 08 $9 $0 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 -6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 03 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 03 $7 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +65%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 03 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 1h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Felix Gill 72¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 25h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 3d
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 1¢ $0 4d
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 1¢ $0 4d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Caty McNally 87¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 4d
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis BUY Dali Blanch 65¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 4d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 88¢ $1 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 81¢ $1 5d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 60¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 5d
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 48¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $14 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.06 · official $59.07 (match) · 510 history records