Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:01:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
98 0x984d…2a2e world 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate64%16W / 9L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$1
other 22% +$1
sports 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
politics 3% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 13 +3.0% -6.8% 54% 8% -9.3%
all 25 +2.1% -7.6% 64% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 4% -9.1%
10% -16.4% 4% -17.8%
15% -24.5% 4% -25.8%
20% -31.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses16 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage477d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $14 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $35 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $66 −$2 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $72 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $6 +$2 +38%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $33 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $18 +$1 +4%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will another team have the highest Constructor score at the Australian Mar 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 11-17? Mar 17 $20 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German electio Mar 15 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $33 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $36 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $36 14h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $14 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $14 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $1 27d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $31 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $2 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $9 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $9 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $36 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $35 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $32 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $27 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $7 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $37 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $37 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $3 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $2 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $31 31d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $34 33d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $34 33d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $1 33d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $1 33d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $0 33d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $31 34d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.80 · official $32.80 (match) · 69 history records