Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:09:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x984c…7b72 crypto 183 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,523 (-18%) realized −$2,523 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%83W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$911
7 days+$911
14 days−$2,293
30 days−$2,044
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,044
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +1.9% -7.8% 55% 55% +11.7%
≤30d 183 -17.1% -25.0% 45% 45% -22.9%
≤90d 183 -17.1% -25.0% 45% 45% -22.9%
all 183 -17.1% -25.0% 45% 45% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.0% 45% -22.9%
10% ← realistic here -32.2% 45% -30.3%
15% -38.8% 44% -37.0%
20% -44.8% 42% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$71 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,523
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses83 / 100
Open positions0
Markets (closed)183 / 183
History coverage16d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 183 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $196 +$140 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$41 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $739 +$682 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $283 −$283 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $94 −$74 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $164 +$139 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$45 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$4 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $300 +$269 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $160 −$112 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $404 +$167 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $153 −$148 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $185 +$118 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $408 +$273 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $254 −$245 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $81 −$76 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $81 +$66 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$24 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $73 +$52 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 09 $228 −$220 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 09 $124 +$101 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 09 $164 −$162 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 09 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 09 $76 −$74 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $41 +$37 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 09 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 09 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 09 $99 −$99 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $335 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $93 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $23 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $23 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $23 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $739 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $213 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $70 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $20 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $84 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $303 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $164 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $7 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $300 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $160 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $571 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $404 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $153 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 423 history records