Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:50:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
98 0x984b…972a other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$32 (+6%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate86%19W / 3L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$32
sports 23% +$20
world 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +3.4% -6.4% 86% 32% -2.4%
≤30d 22 +3.4% -6.4% 86% 32% -2.4%
≤90d 22 +3.4% -6.4% 86% 32% -2.4%
all 22 +3.4% -6.4% 86% 32% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 32% -2.4%
10% -15.4% 9% -11.7%
15% -23.5% 5% -20.2%
20% -31.0% 0% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.77 per $1 lost it wins $3.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses19 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage6d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $18 +$2 +14%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $22 +$8 +38%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $9 +$1 +8%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $14 +$1 +8%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $13 +$2 +16%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $14 +$1 +7%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $8 +$2 +22%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $18 +$2 +12%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +29%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +10%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $18 +$2 +8%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $19 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $9 −$5 -56%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 20 $18 +$2 +10%
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $8 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $143 +$19 +13%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $47 +$3 +7%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $95 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? SELL No 100¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 88¢ $18 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $22 4h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 92¢ $9 21h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 91¢ $9 21h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY No 94¢ $9 21h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $14 21h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 82¢ $8 27h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? BUY No 93¢ $0 39h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $13 40h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? BUY No 93¢ $14 40h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $10 41h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Neither team to score first? BUY No 93¢ $9 47h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL No 88¢ $18 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $18 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 93¢ $19 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL No 39¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 87¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 91¢ $9 2d
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? BUY No 94¢ $8 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $18 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 91¢ $18 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 95¢ $19 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 76¢ $50 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL No 79¢ $43 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 86¢ $50 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 93¢ $47 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 85¢ $43 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records