Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:08:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x984a…2726 sports 879 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$667 (-4%) realized −$688 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%432W / 425L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$576now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$109
7 days+$82
14 days−$764
30 days−$693
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$373
crypto 23% −$53
other 19% −$445
world 10% +$73
finance 2% +$86
politics 1% −$37
culture 0% +$25
tech 0% +$2
weather 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -1.7% -11.1% 32% 30% -4.1%
≤30d 135 -19.7% -27.4% 28% 27% -30.3%
≤90d 339 -6.7% -15.6% 40% 39% -24.4%
all 857 -3.7% -12.9% 50% 46% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 46% -13.4%
10% -21.2% 40% -21.7%
15% -28.8% 31% -29.3%
20% -35.8% 22% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$576
Realized−$688
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses432 / 425
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions22
Markets (closed)857 / 879
History coverage148d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 857 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $150 $197 +$47 (+32%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $150 $157 +$7 (+5%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 77¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+71%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+11%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 76¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+54%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+43%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 68¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-10%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 51¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 8¢ 13¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+59%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+49%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-71%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$33 +650%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $71 −$70 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $5 +$10 +199%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 +$56 +365%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $13 +$14 +109%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$14 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$11 +73%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$17 +109%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$71 +463%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$19 +126%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$29 +143%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$60 +291%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $43 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 5h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 5h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 5h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 29h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $8 29h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 29h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $15 39h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 39h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 39h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $10 39h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 39h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 39h
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 39h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 39h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 39h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 31¢ $15 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $575.95 · official $575.68 (match) · 2150 history records