Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:13:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9849…80eb world 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate43%38W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$1
sports 19% −$1
other 16% −$1
politics 10% −$3
economics 2% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -3.7% -12.9% 9% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 28 -1.0% -10.5% 39% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 75 -0.7% -10.2% 43% 3% -9.3%
all 88 -3.2% -12.4% 43% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 5% -9.6%
10% -20.8% 3% -18.3%
15% -28.4% 1% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses38 / 50
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)88 / 93
History coverage532d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+63%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $52 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $1 $0 -31%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $82 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $12 −$1 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $58 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $48 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $86 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $52 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $35 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $101 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $13 +$1 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $39 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $137 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $51 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $58 −$2 -4%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $53 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $103 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $103 +$2 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $77 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $18 +$4 +24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $48 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $4 +$1 +24%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $86 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $48 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 14 $4 $0 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $38 −$1 -2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $54 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $48 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $24 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $16 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $9 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $44 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $52 29h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $1 29h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $41 31h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $41 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $53 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $5 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $15 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $20 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $13 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $45 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $45 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $11 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.66 · official $47.90 (match) · 451 history records