Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:02:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9849…2ee5 other 203 markets active 0h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$748 (-9%) realized −$697 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%62W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days−$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 69% −$266
world 22% +$275
sports 4% −$94
other 2% −$29
crypto 2% −$48
politics 0% −$29
tech 0% −$7
economics 0% −$7
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +284.6% +248.0% 100% 100% +248.0%
≤30d 15 -22.2% -29.6% 20% 20% -43.5%
≤90d 131 -64.2% -67.6% 11% 10% -13.0%
all 191 -13.8% -22.0% 32% 30% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 30% -10.2%
10% -29.5% 29% -18.8%
15% -36.3% 28% -26.6%
20% -42.5% 27% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -62% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$14 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$266
Realized−$697
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses62 / 129
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions12
Markets (closed)191 / 203
History coverage205d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $238 $223 −$14 (-6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $54 $23 −$31 (-58%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-64%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 25¢ 55¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+118%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? No 19¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 10 $2 +$6 +285%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 27 $89 −$86 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 26 $20 −$18 -89%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 24 $216 −$96 -44%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $4 +$2 +52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 23 $41 +$77 +188%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 23 $12 −$1 -8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $20 −$5 -24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 23 $16 −$3 -20%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $70 −$11 -16%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 06 $31 −$30 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 01 $11 −$11 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 29 $17 +$3 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 28 $15 −$15 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 24 $399 −$90 -23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? Apr 23 $112 −$49 -43%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 22 $1,134 −$291 -26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 21 $1,393 +$417 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 21 $100 −$35 -35%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $241 +$333 +138%
Hornets vs. Knicks Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bulls vs. Mavericks Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Apr 13 $5 +$21 +414%
Magic vs. Celtics Apr 13 $5 +$25 +509%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $20 +$20 +101%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 12 $804 −$67 -8%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26? Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Apr 11 $127 −$127 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-08? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Qairat FK vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Suns vs. Hawks Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Nets vs. Pelicans Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2025? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-01-17? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $1 26m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $1 27m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $1 27m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $2 28m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 18d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 18d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 19d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 20d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 20d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 22d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 22d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 22d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? SELL Yes 14¢ $93 22d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 67¢ $6 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? BUY Yes 35¢ $113 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.10 · official $266.10 (match) · 529 history records