Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9844…99f3 sports 279 markets active 1h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$490 (-20%) realized −$508 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%91W / 184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$173
sports 35% −$303
other 16% −$20
crypto 1% −$13
politics 1% −$4
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -61.5% -65.2% 20% 20% -41.9%
≤30d 6 -66.1% -69.4% 17% 17% -45.2%
≤90d 158 -52.4% -57.0% 18% 16% -48.7%
all 275 -13.6% -21.9% 33% 27% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 27% -28.1%
10% -29.3% 24% -35.0%
15% -36.2% 22% -41.3%
20% -42.4% 20% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$508
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses91 / 184
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)275 / 279
History coverage182d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ 22¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $4 −$3 -67%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $9 −$2 -20%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $2 −$2 -97%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $3 +$12 +376%
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? May 10 $8 −$8 -98%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $8 −$1 -12%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $1 −$1 -99%
FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score Apr 22 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 22 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 22 $17 −$16 -96%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov Apr 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026? Apr 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? Apr 09 $103 −$75 -73%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 08 $45 −$22 -49%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 08 $15 −$11 -73%
Will England vs. Japan end in a draw? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kosovo vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Poland win on 2026-03-31? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-03-31? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 08 $10 +$4 +44%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 07 $5 +$12 +249%
Will Egypt vs. Spain end in a draw? Mar 31 $2 +$5 +233%
Will England win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $5 −$3 -60%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs 9INE (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship Pla Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán GC vs Polar Squad Esports GC (BO3) - VCT Game Chang Mar 25 $1 $0 +14%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Mar 25 $3 $0 -17%
Yokkaichi: Soon-Woo Kwon vs August Holmgren Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North America: Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (W) Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Miami Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Kings vs. Hornets Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-03-23? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Capitals vs. Blues Mar 25 $2 +$1 +45%
Wild vs. Lightning Mar 25 $2 +$4 +186%
Devils vs. Stars Mar 25 $5 +$1 +30%
Pelicans vs. Knicks Mar 25 $9 +$6 +62%
Sao Paulo: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Boris Arias Mar 25 $2 +$3 +163%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 24 $1 +$1 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis $1 45m
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 26¢ $3 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $4 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $3 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $4 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $5 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 7h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 4d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 4d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 46¢ $2 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 46¢ $7 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 38¢ $2 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 48¢ $5 15d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers $2 35d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 99¢ $15 35d
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? BUY No 38¢ $3 35d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 21¢ $1 35d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Joaquin Buckley $1 36d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Brady 91¢ $17 36d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Brady 38¢ $2 36d
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Jeremy Stephens 22¢ $1 36d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Brady 38¢ $5 36d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 20¢ $2 36d
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? BUY No 34¢ $5 36d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 52¢ $1 49d
FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $2 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $13 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.51 · official $15.51 (match) · 936 history records