Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:56:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
98 0x9843…84f2 politics 18 markets active 5d ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$43 (+2%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$39
14 days−$39
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% $0
sports 34% +$45
other 10% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 6 +9.7% -0.8% 33% 33% -3.5%
all 18 +1.3% -8.4% 28% 17% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 17% -7.7%
10% -17.1% 11% -16.5%
15% -25.1% 11% -24.6%
20% -32.5% 11% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$13 · ×2.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage135d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $39 −$39 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $11 +$18 +165%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 27 $105 −$104 -99%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $6 $0 -7%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $345 $0 +0%
Spread: Hawks (-8.5) Mar 21 $170 +$170 +100%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $2 $0 -6%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 13 $207 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $3 −$1 -33%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 07 $206 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $206 +$1 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $208 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 14 $208 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 10 $207 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 03 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $6 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $39 5d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 37¢ $11 37d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons 58¢ $105 50d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 71d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 75d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $345 80d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $345 82d
Spread: Hawks (-8.5) BUY Hawks 50¢ $170 90d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 91d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 93d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $206 95d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $207 96d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 98d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 99d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $206 101d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $206 102d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 103d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 104d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $208 106d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $206 107d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $205 108d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $206 109d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $208 113d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $208 120d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $207 122d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 123d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $207 126d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $207 127d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 133d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records