Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:04:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9842…132b other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$420 (+10%) realized −$187 · open +$607
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%5W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$1,357now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$143
7 days−$143
14 days−$80
30 days−$511
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 32% +$344
other 26% −$134
crypto 18% +$38
world 10% −$304
sports 10% −$37
culture 4% −$42
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-57.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -64.5% -67.9% 11% 11% -67.4%
≤30d 23 -60.5% -64.3% 13% 13% -50.8%
≤90d 36 -52.8% -57.3% 14% 14% -50.2%
all 36 -52.8% -57.3% 14% 14% -50.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.3% 14% -50.2%
10% -61.4% 11% -55.0%
15% -65.1% 8% -59.3%
20% -68.6% 6% -63.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 86% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$29 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$1,357
Realized−$187
Unrealized+$607
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses5 / 31
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions12
Markets (closed)36 / 48
History coverage39d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 5¢ 17¢ $255 $852 +$598 (+235%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $276 $314 +$38 (+14%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $106 $81 −$24 (-23%)
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $17 $19 +$1 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $4 $18 +$15 (+407%)
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-10%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-16%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $22 $6 −$16 (-75%)
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+42%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Jun 28 $36 −$20 -55%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $43 −$42 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $13 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $54 −$52 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $14 −$2 -13%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $23 −$6 -25%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $31 +$4 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 14 $50 +$65 +130%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? Jun 12 $67 −$67 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $439 −$189 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $14 −$14 -96%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 10 $39 −$24 -61%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May? Jun 10 $24 −$5 -23%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May? Jun 10 $74 +$14 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -96%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May? Jun 02 $16 −$15 -95%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $122 −$61 -50%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in May? May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 29 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $7 −$2 -32%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $20 −$1 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $33 −$17 -52%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $9 −$5 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $12 +$4 +36%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $15 −$4 -26%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 26 $13 −$12 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $46 −$17 -36%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $187 −$150 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $37 +$67 +182%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $46 −$44 -96%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 21 $116 −$42 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $10 −$9 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $50 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $45 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $53 1h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $16 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $46 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $71 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $96 11h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $44 15h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $23 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 18h
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 19h
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 19h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $45 19h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $144 20h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 20h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $74 34h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $27 34h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $174 34h
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $52 34h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $70 34h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 35h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $13 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $12 37h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $33 37h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 37h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 37h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 37h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 37h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,357.05 · official $1,350.99 (match) · 184 history records