Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:45:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
98 0x9842…936d crypto 714 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$524 (+5%) realized +$529 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%374W / 339L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$31
14 days+$177
30 days+$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$214
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +4.7% -5.2% 52% 52% -4.3%
≤30d 159 +14.2% +3.3% 58% 58% +3.0%
≤90d 672 +4.4% -5.5% 53% 53% -7.9%
all 713 +4.6% -5.4% 52% 52% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 52% -7.7%
10% -14.4% 52% -16.5%
15% -22.7% 52% -24.6%
20% -30.3% 52% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$15 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$529
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses374 / 339
Open positions1
Markets (closed)713 / 714
History coverage92d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 713 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Down 52¢ 29¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$14 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$15 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$11 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$10 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$10 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$10 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$12 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$16 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$11 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$10 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$10 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$10 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$17 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$11 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$11 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$10 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$9 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$23 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$15 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$9 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$10 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$5 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $11 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $11 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.13 · official $7.51 · 2120 history records