Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9840…e6bc other 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1386 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate22%7W / 25L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$914per market
Trades / day1386.1pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$31
politics 28% +$15
world 20% $0
economics 5% +$55
tech 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1386 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +4.2% -5.7% 22% 9% -9.3%
≤30d 32 +4.2% -5.7% 22% 9% -9.3%
≤90d 32 +4.2% -5.7% 22% 9% -9.3%
all 32 +4.2% -5.7% 22% 9% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1386.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 9% -9.3%
10% -14.7% 3% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -23.0% 3% -25.9%
20% -30.5% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$958) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
43.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$1 · ×27.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.75 per $1 lost it wins $8.75
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses7 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)32 / 43
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$914
Trades / day1386.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 98¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 15 $10,206 −$6 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 15 $817 +$21 +2%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $958 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1,134 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10,402 −$6 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,337 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $144 +$20 +14%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $4,770 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $297 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $124 +$21 +17%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $1,121 +$34 +3%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,261 $0 -0%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $19 $0 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $645 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $19 +$19 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $254 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $326 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $330 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $21 0m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1 8m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1 8m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $19 14m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $19 16m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $19 16m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $20 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $26 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $9 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $16 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $26 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $26 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $21 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $17 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $4 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $21 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $6 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $15 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $6 25m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $6 25m
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) SELL No 100¢ $18 29m
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) BUY No 100¢ $20 29m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 32m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $0 32m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $20 38m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 38m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $19 41m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 98¢ $20 51m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $20 51m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.33 · official $223.33 (match) · 3500 history records