Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9840…9c48 crypto 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$186 (-12%) realized −$186 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%76W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day22.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$190
14 days−$186
30 days−$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$192
sports 3% −$16
weather 0% −$3
other 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 +58.6% +43.5% 43% 32% -20.4%
≤30d 166 +44.9% +31.1% 46% 36% -21.2%
≤90d 166 +44.9% +31.1% 46% 36% -21.2%
all 166 +44.9% +31.1% 46% 36% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +31.1% 36% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here +18.6% 29% -28.8%
15% +7.1% 21% -35.7%
20% -3.4% 17% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late +51% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$186
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses76 / 90
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)166 / 166
History coverage26d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 166 Trades
no open positions (73 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $93 −$8 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $78 −$8 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$9 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$8 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$12 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$16 +243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$6 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$26 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$8 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $38 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $70 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $8 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $7 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $8 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $0 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 665 history records