Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:22:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

98
0x9840…4530
politics · 174 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$1,770 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,722 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,538
Realized+$1,722
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses37 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)172 / 174
History coverage142d
Avg bet$1,524
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 2 History 172 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$29
14 days+$174
30 days+$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,301 $1,301 −$1 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $236 $237 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $4,180 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,377 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,306 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $1,477 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,356 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,831 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,472 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,375 −$4 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $4,404 −$5 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,665 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $5,534 −$6 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $84 +$79 +93%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $3,119 −$5 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 04 $52 +$66 +129%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $4,429 −$5 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $7,417 −$8 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $51 +$96 +188%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,345 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,319 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,976 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $457 +$3 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $609 +$1 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,122 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $4,901 −$7 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $2,002 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,974 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,142 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $2,693 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,149 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $921 −$1 -0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $88 +$40 +46%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $2,938 −$2 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,169 −$2 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $1,410 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $1,658 −$2 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $65 +$48 +73%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $2,539 −$3 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 21 $1,300 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $1,364 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $1,356 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $3,973 −$4 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $1,662 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $3,006 −$4 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $1,371 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 17 $1,371 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $1,571 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 15 $1,381 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $1,504 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 44% −$160
other 34% −$111
sports 12% +$2,028
world 3% −$22
culture 2% −$8
economics 2% −$6
tech 1% −$4
crypto 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,302 1h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,355 27h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,357 28h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,375 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,377 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,305 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,306 3d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,475 3d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,477 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,354 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,356 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,315 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $236 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,316 4d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,565 4d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,568 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,645 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,648 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,439 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,441 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,662 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,665 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,075 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,077 7d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $84 9d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,593 9d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,596 10d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,312 10d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,313 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,401 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 50 +8.5% -1.8% 14% 10% -9.4%
≤90d 122 -5.6% -14.6% 10% 5% -9.7%
all 172 +2.3% -7.4% 22% 9% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 9% -8.9%
10% -16.3% 9% -17.6%
15% -24.4% 9% -25.6%
20% -31.8% 8% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,537.85 · official $1,537.85 (match) · 574 history records