Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
98 0x983d…6288 sports 30 markets active 12h ago coverage 3d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$914 (+49%) realized +$914 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%18W / 12L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$813
other 9% +$55
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +31.2% +18.7% 60% 60% +32.5%
≤30d 30 +31.2% +18.7% 60% 60% +32.5%
≤90d 30 +31.2% +18.7% 60% 60% +32.5%
all 30 +31.2% +18.7% 60% 60% +32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.7% 60% +32.5%
10% +7.4% 60% +19.8%
15% -3.0% 57% +8.2%
20% -12.5% 50% -2.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$40 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$914
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses18 / 12
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage3d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$50 +49%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 +$50 +49%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $102 +$54 +53%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$64 +63%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $26 +$83 +321%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 +$90 +88%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $103 +$151 +147%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $103 +$141 +137%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $13 +$26 +193%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$51 +246%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 +$35 +68%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$38 +74%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $51 +$17 +34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $51 +$49 +95%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$67 +65%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $76 +$164 +217%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $77 −$75 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $159 +$113 +71%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $60 +$100 +167%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $152 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $152 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $102 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $102 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $26 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $102 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 23¢ $26 16h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $102 16h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 18h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $102 19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $254 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $26 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $103 40h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $103 41h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 43h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $102 43h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 80¢ $39 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 26¢ $13 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $86 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $89 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $26 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $51 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $68 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 99¢ $100 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 72¢ $51 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records