Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:07:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x983a…ca05 other 470 markets active 0h ago coverage 89d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$18,087 (-46%) realized −$18,060 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate29%129W / 319L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day33.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 89d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$754
politics 21% −$336
sports 20% +$39
tech 11% −$51
finance 10% +$128
world 6% −$97
weather 4% +$2
crypto 1% −$23
culture 1% −$45
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -27.0% -33.9% 17% 6% -16.9%
≤30d 155 -20.5% -28.0% 23% 7% -14.9%
≤90d 448 -12.5% -20.8% 29% 10% -12.1%
all 448 -12.5% -20.8% 29% 10% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 10% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 7% -20.5%
15% -35.3% 6% -28.2%
20% -41.6% 4% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized−$18,060
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses129 / 319
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions22
Markets (closed)448 / 470
History coverage89d ⚠
Avg bet$84
Trades / day33.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 448 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 Week of June 15 2026? No 90¢ 95¢ $41 $44 +$2 (+6%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $35 $35 +$1 (+2%)
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 45 million views on day 3? No 95¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 Week of June 15 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 Week of June 15 2026? No 83¢ 91¢ $17 $18 +$2 (+10%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? No 19¢ 15¢ $21 $16 −$5 (-23%)
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $90 Week of June 15 2026? No 77¢ 77¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? No 57¢ 56¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+6%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 57¢ 57¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? No 5¢ 5¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $175 Week of June 15 2026? No 40¢ 32¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 50¢ 54¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3? Yes 17¢ 1¢ $15 $0 −$14 (-97%)
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026? No 59¢ 76¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+28%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate Primary by 20–30%? No 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 3? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 16 $3 $0 -6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $106 −$6 -6%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 16 $26 +$3 +12%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $198 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $21 $0 -2%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $8 −$2 -28%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $60 −$5 -9%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $197 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $13 −$3 -23%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $17 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -56%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $125 −$7 -6%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $96 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $9 −$4 -47%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $16 −$2 -10%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $9 $0 -1%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $192 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -6%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $53 +$5 +10%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $21 +$40 +185%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $18 $0 -0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $14 −$3 -22%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $165 Week of June 15 2026 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $71 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $170 Week of June 15 2026 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,350 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $167.50 Week of June 15 2 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,080 Week of June 15 20 Jun 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $157.50 Week of June 15 20 Jun 15 $8 −$4 -52%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $155 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$2 -36%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $73 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $11 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $28 −$4 -15%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $92.50 Week of June 15 2 Jun 15 $12 −$3 -28%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 15 $13 +$2 +12%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 +$37 +276%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 +$56 +550%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $9 2m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 16¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 2¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 6m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 6m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 9m
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 9m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 16¢ $1 13m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 6¢ $3 14m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 15m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 16¢ $2 15m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 7¢ $4 15m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 15m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 16¢ $5 17m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 9¢ $4 19m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 9¢ $2 21m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 9¢ $3 21m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 23m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 91¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 8¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 91¢ $12 24m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 91¢ $33 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.35 · official $243.04 (match) · 3500 history records