Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:07:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x983a…62d6 crypto 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$291 (-4%) realized −$291 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%38W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$53
14 days−$69
30 days−$521
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$535
other 5% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -35.2% -41.4% 45% 36% -26.7%
≤30d 68 -26.2% -33.2% 56% 44% -17.3%
≤90d 68 -26.2% -33.2% 56% 44% -17.3%
all 68 -26.2% -33.2% 56% 44% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.2% 44% -17.3%
10% -39.6% 26% -25.2%
15% -45.4% 1% -32.4%
20% -50.8% 0% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$37 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$291
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses38 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage19d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $71 −$55 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $81 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$5 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$11 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 09 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 09 $151 +$23 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 09 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 09 $101 +$18 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $102 +$35 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 09 $101 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 09 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 08 $160 −$55 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $561 −$411 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $120 +$30 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 08 $421 +$39 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 08 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 08 $441 −$40 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $384 −$40 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 08 $401 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 08 $302 +$34 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $300 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 08 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 08 $202 +$38 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 08 $203 +$44 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 08 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 08 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $149 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 08 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $319 +$14 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 08 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 08 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 08 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 08 $80 +$20 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $8 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 395 history records