Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:59:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
98 0x9839…3f18 crypto 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$86 (+0%) realized +$88 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%96W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,089now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$30
14 days+$53
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$84
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
other 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 26 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 60 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 0% -9.1%
all 100 -2.7% -12.0% 96% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -9.3%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.0%
15% -28.1% 0% -25.9%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,002) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$11 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.97 per $1 lost it wins $2.97
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$1,089
Realized+$88
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses96 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)100 / 104
History coverage156d
Avg bet$317
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $1,087 $1,085 −$2 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,075 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,066 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,060 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,066 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,055 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,047 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,046 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,039 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,043 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $1,036 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,036 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,026 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $1,023 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $1,025 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $1,018 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $1,014 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $615 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $1,008 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $997 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $1,002 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $995 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? May 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23? May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? May 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? May 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 5? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 2? May 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? May 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? May 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Apr 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 14? Apr 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 12? Apr 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? Apr 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,087 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,075 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,066 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,060 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,066 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,055 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1,033 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $13 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,046 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,039 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,043 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $54 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $782 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,036 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $123 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $377 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $188 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $338 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,023 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $1,025 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,018 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $1,014 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $615 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $876 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $132 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $997 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,089.09 · official $1,089.09 (match) · 226 history records