Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:46:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9836…9e73 world 178 markets active 19h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate62%111W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$7
other 20% −$1
politics 13% −$5
economics 7% +$1
finance 5% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.0% -9.6% 61% 19% -5.8%
≤30d 55 -3.4% -12.6% 58% 15% -7.5%
≤90d 136 -3.1% -12.3% 61% 10% -9.6%
all 178 -1.7% -11.0% 62% 11% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 11% -9.1%
10% -19.5% 5% -17.8%
15% -27.3% 3% -25.8%
20% -34.4% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses111 / 67
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)178 / 178
History coverage121d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 178 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -16%
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -75%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 -9%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Jun 17 $1 $0 -8%
AI bubble burst in 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $19 $0 -0%
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -74%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 17 $1 $0 +45%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 17 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 17 $3 $0 +12%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 17 $11 +$1 +12%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Jun 17 $13 +$2 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +69%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 -43%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $9 $0 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
ECB rate hike in 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $1 $0 +8%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jun 02 $13 $0 -1%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +3%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Jun 01 $2 $0 -0%
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2 Jun 01 $1 −$1 -50%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +35%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $2 $0 -2%
Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027? May 28 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 18h
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 18h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? SELL No 71¢ $1 18h
AI bubble burst in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $0 18h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 18h
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 18h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 18h
Will GameStop acquire eBay? SELL No 83¢ $1 18h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 18h
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? SELL Yes $0 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 18h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $3 18h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 92¢ $2 18h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1 18h
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $2 18h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $4 18h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 84¢ $1 18h
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $1 19h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 55¢ $1 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 19h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2 19h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 86¢ $3 19h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $6 19h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $16 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 19h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 37¢ $1 19h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 85¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1118 history records