Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
98 0x9834…cff7 politics 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% $0
world 26% −$4
other 25% +$1
sports 14% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 7 +17.7% +6.5% 71% 14% -10.9%
≤90d 7 +17.7% +6.5% 71% 14% -10.9%
all 37 +3.4% -6.5% 46% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 3% -9.8%
10% -15.4% 3% -18.4%
15% -23.6% 3% -26.3%
20% -31.1% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage301d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $54 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $38 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $48 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $2 $0 +8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $42 −$5 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 22 $17 $0 +2%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $1 $0 -6%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Mar 03 $2 $0 -5%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 27 $11 $0 +4%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 24 $14 $0 +1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $17 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $23 $0 +2%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $2 $0 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 17 $22 $0 -1%
Will Lazarus Chakwera win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? Sep 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Aug 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 23 $28 $0 -0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $3 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Aug 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 21 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $42 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $42 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $38 10h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $42 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $42 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $42 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $22 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $15 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 73¢ $42 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $12 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $11 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $17 27d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 106d
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $11 172d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $15 175d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $2 182d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $17 194d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $14 263d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.52 · official $0.00 (match) · 221 history records