Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:25:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9834…2e9e politics 178 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%17W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$5
politics 22% −$5
other 21% −$8
crypto 14% −$2
culture 6% $0
economics 5% $0
world 4% −$1
finance 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 50 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.7%
all 178 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses17 / 161
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)178 / 178
History coverage173d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 178 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $105 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $34 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 May 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $139 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 15 $70 $0 +0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $134 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $71 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $115 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $39 −$3 -7%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $33 $0 -2%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 11 $149 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 11 $296 −$2 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $86 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $211 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $92 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 07 $81 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $33 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 06 $204 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 06 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 06 $123 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $121 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 02 $37 $0 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 02 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 01 $401 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Apr 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 31 $43 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 31 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 30 $33 $0 -0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 30 $33 $0 -1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $41 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 29 $217 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $33 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $33 8h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $34 14d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $34 14d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $34 27d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $34 27d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $32 39d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $32 40d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 71d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 72d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 72d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 72d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $39 72d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $39 72d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? SELL No 97¢ $37 72d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 97¢ $37 72d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $31 72d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $31 73d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $25 73d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $25 73d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $33 73d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $33 73d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? SELL No 97¢ $37 73d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $37 74d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $39 74d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $39 74d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $32 74d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $32 74d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $27 74d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $27 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 644 history records