Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:16:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x982c…714d sports 346 markets active 1h ago coverage 654d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%26W / 319L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$23
14 days−$35
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$22
sports 30% −$9
politics 26% −$17
economics 5% −$2
crypto 3% −$6
tech 1% −$1
culture 1% −$2
finance 1% −$4
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -1.7% -11.1% 5% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 82 -1.0% -10.4% 7% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 89 -1.0% -10.4% 7% 0% -10.2%
all 345 -0.3% -9.8% 8% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

654d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses26 / 319
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)345 / 346
History coverage654d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $108 −$1 -1%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 18 $46 $0 +1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $392 −$3 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 18 $117 −$1 -1%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $56 −$6 -11%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $48 −$4 -9%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $104 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $48 −$2 -5%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $53 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 14 $50 $0 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $118 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $97 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $134 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $224 −$1 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $53 −$1 -3%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $57 $0 -1%
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 10 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $43 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $105 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 09 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $154 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 08 $58 −$2 -3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $197 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 07 $50 $0 -1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $62 $0 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $3 $0 -3%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 06 $28 −$1 -4%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $45 −$2 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 04 $46 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $82 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $39 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $64 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $57 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $57 9h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $41 10h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $41 14h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $40 15h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $41 22h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 99¢ $47 22h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $46 27h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $65 28h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $65 32h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $51 32h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $14 40h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $37 40h
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $50 41h
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $47 2d
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $10 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $50 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $50 2d
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $50 3d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $52 3d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $52 3d
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $43 3d
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $48 3d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.31 · official $64.31 (match) · 1311 history records