Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
98 0x982a…8284 crypto 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$505 (+6%) realized +$505 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate63%104W / 61L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$165
30 days+$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$280
sports 25% +$696
world 6% −$14
finance 3% −$4
weather 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.8% -12.0% 0% 0% -12.0%
≤30d 80 -31.5% -38.0% 36% 35% -1.2%
≤90d 100 -14.4% -22.5% 45% 44% +0.8%
all 165 -7.7% -16.5% 63% 32% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 32% -4.9%
10% -24.5% 28% -14.0%
15% -31.8% 22% -22.3%
20% -38.5% 20% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$505
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses104 / 61
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions5
Markets (closed)165 / 170
History coverage114d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No 99¢ 98¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Yes 95¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 17 $32 −$1 -3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 03 $73 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 03 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 03 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 03 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 03 $36 −$35 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 03 $30 +$8 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $168 −$14 -8%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $425 +$222 +52%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $253 −$100 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 27 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 27 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +72%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $51 +$43 +86%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 25 $111 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 25 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 24 $25 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 24 $11 +$5 +45%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $102 +$164 +161%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $435 +$97 +22%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $132 +$72 +54%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $250 +$58 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 21 $10 +$6 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 21 $10 +$4 +35%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $51 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 20 $42 +$30 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 20 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 20 $42 +$38 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 20 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 20 $17 −$8 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 20 $118 −$4 -3%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $101 +$39 +38%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $51 +$31 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 18? SELL No 63¢ $31 59m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 64¢ $32 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $3 20h
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $79 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $81 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 11d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 BUY Yes 98¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $73 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $28 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $9 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $36 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $30 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $154 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $168 13d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Gujarat Titans 99¢ $422 18d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 52¢ $226 18d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 47¢ $226 18d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 44¢ $40 18d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 39¢ $160 18d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 49¢ $102 20d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 82¢ $183 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.64 · official $6.94 (match) · 419 history records