Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:24:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

98
0x982a…6851
tech · 209 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$10,041 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10,640 · open −$599
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$8,809
Realized+$10,640
Unrealized−$599
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses104 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions41
Markets (closed)170 / 209
Avg bet$402
Trades / day881.7
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 41 History 170 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,503
7 days+$10,640
14 days+$10,640
30 days+$10,640
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $395? Yes 43¢ 67¢ $866 $1,347 +$481 (+56%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 12? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $664 $702 +$38 (+6%)
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $345? Yes 70¢ 95¢ $491 $665 +$174 (+35%)
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $360? Yes 14¢ 64¢ $141 $649 +$508 (+360%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $200? Yes 56¢ 90¢ $375 $603 +$228 (+61%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $4.50? Yes 30¢ 50¢ $302 $495 +$193 (+64%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $400? No 79¢ 44¢ $791 $435 −$356 (-45%)
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $240? Yes 39¢ 80¢ $192 $391 +$199 (+103%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $395? No 74¢ 33¢ $752 $334 −$419 (-56%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $205? Yes 37¢ 62¢ $197 $331 +$134 (+68%)
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $225? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $247 $254 +$7 (+3%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Down 32¢ 26¢ $314 $252 −$61 (-19%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Down 30¢ 24¢ $297 $233 −$64 (-22%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 12? Yes 78¢ 83¢ $196 $208 +$12 (+6%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $400? Yes 25¢ 56¢ $87 $197 +$110 (+126%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? Yes 49¢ 57¢ $137 $161 +$24 (+17%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 12? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $102 $160 +$58 (+57%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $195? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $140 $151 +$11 (+8%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $210? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $90 $123 +$32 (+36%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $205? No 46¢ 38¢ $142 $115 −$27 (-19%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? No 35¢ 42¢ $90 $110 +$20 (+22%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $5.00? Yes 23¢ 10¢ $227 $105 −$122 (-54%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $410? No 49¢ 80¢ $63 $104 +$40 (+64%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 8 above $370? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $93 $98 +$5 (+5%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 12? No 23¢ 17¢ $128 $95 −$33 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +40%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $736 +$242 +33%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $443 −$152 -34%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $338 −$223 -66%
Will Meta (META) close above $570 on June 11? Jun 11 $46 −$36 -78%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $205 on June 11? Jun 11 $202 +$192 +95%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 11? Jun 11 $282 +$141 +50%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,124 −$99 -9%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $883 +$247 +28%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? Jun 11 $472 −$383 -81%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $609 −$163 -27%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $375 −$330 -88%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $115 +$231 +201%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 11? Jun 11 $465 +$115 +25%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $610 +$120 +20%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $121 −$90 -74%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $502 +$125 +25%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +10%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 11? Jun 11 $802 −$216 -27%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $421 −$233 -55%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $355 on June 11? Jun 11 $45 +$418 +932%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $349 −$234 -67%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 on June 11? Jun 11 $115 +$285 +249%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $501 +$185 +37%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $520 +$191 +37%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $365 on June 11? Jun 11 $78 −$68 -87%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 11? Jun 11 $813 −$129 -16%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 11? Jun 11 $202 +$8 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 11? Jun 11 $108 +$2 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on June 11? Jun 11 $508 +$32 +6%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $520 +$77 +15%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on June 11? Jun 11 $149 −$119 -80%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$2 +9%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,335 +$115 +9%
Will Meta (META) close above $600 on June 11? Jun 11 $22 +$2 +9%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on June 11? Jun 11 $78 −$45 -58%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 11? Jun 11 $322 −$122 -38%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 11? Jun 11 $22 +$2 +9%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $521 −$62 -12%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on June 11? Jun 11 $166 +$10 +6%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $129 −$126 -98%
Micron (MU) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Meta (META) close above $560 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $235 on June 11? Jun 11 $55 −$53 -97%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on June 11? Jun 11 $114 −$110 -97%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 on June 11? Jun 11 $119 −$116 -97%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $222 −$12 -5%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $556 +$55 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
finance 49% +$2,015
other 24% +$4,528
tech 24% +$3,346
sports 3% +$171
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $290? BUY No 2¢ $2 1m
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $290? BUY No 2¢ $2 1m
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $290? BUY No 2¢ $2 2m
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $290? BUY No 2¢ $2 2m
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $290? BUY No 2¢ $2 2m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 28¢ $3 4m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 12? BUY No 16¢ $8 12m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 26¢ $8 12m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 26¢ $27 12m
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 9¢ $0 19m
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 35¢ $1 19m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 25¢ $26 24m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 25¢ $26 24m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 25¢ $23 24m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? BUY No 35¢ $18 25m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 23¢ $19 26m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 23¢ $24 26m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 29m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? BUY No 34¢ $70 30m
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $350? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 35m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 23¢ $2 38m
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $240? BUY No 20¢ $2 40m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 24¢ $25 41m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 22¢ $23 48m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 12? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 50m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 12? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 50m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 12? BUY Yes 92¢ $4 51m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 21¢ $0 51m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 12? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 51m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 27¢ $3 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+58.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 +74.9% +58.2% 61% 35% +2.5%
≤30d 170 +74.9% +58.2% 61% 35% +2.5%
≤90d 170 +74.9% +58.2% 61% 35% +2.5%
all 170 +74.9% +58.2% 61% 35% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover881.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +58.2% 35% +2.5%
10% ← realistic here +43.1% 28% -7.3%
15% +29.3% 22% -16.3%
20% +16.6% 19% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,808.93 · official $8,809.02 (match) · 3500 history records