Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
98 0x982a…26dd sports 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+6%) realized +$6 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate63%17W / 10L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$1
other 38% +$6
crypto 22% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +21.1% +9.6% 63% 59% -0.1%
≤30d 27 +21.1% +9.6% 63% 59% -0.1%
≤90d 27 +21.1% +9.6% 63% 59% -0.1%
all 27 +21.1% +9.6% 63% 59% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.6% 59% -0.1%
10% -0.9% 56% -9.7%
15% -10.5% 52% -18.4%
20% -19.3% 48% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses17 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)27 / 34
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 77¢ 82¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 74¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner EDward Gaming 63¢ 65¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 52¢ 53¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Nico Williams: 1+ goals No 68¢ 79¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$3 +12%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 +$1 +140%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 +$3 +250%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 +$2 +165%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 +$2 +152%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +70%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 63¢ $5 4m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 77¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Nico Williams: 1+ goals BUY No 68¢ $1 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $5 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $5 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 7h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 13h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $1 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 14h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $1 16h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 48¢ $1 21h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 21h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 28¢ $1 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 23h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 37¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.25 · official $29.25 (match) · 60 history records