Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:29:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
98 0x9826…e7fe other 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$43,879 (+12%) realized +$39,624 · open +$4,255
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%46W / 38L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$3,418per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Fees−$231est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$52,431now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,400
7 days+$9,511
14 days+$20,585
30 days+$18,718
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$53,641
politics 11% +$90
sports 7% −$12,958
crypto 7% +$1,680
world 5% +$842
economics 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -6.4% -15.3% 57% 43% -0.9%
≤30d 49 +34.5% +21.7% 55% 31% -1.6%
≤90d 84 +17.6% +6.4% 55% 36% +2.6%
all 84 +17.6% +6.4% 55% 36% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.4% 36% +2.6%
10% -3.8% 31% -7.2%
15% ← realistic here -13.1% 26% -16.2%
20% -21.6% 19% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$4,560) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,123 vs −$1,542 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$52,431
Realized+$39,624
Unrealized+$4,255
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses46 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$231
Open positions27
Markets (closed)84 / 111
History coverage56d
Avg bet$3,418
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 87¢ 98¢ $25,836 $29,286 +$3,450 (+13%)
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 94¢ 99¢ $3,755 $3,968 +$213 (+6%)
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 29¢ 28¢ $2,604 $2,536 −$68 (-3%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $2,071 $2,110 +$39 (+2%)
Will Qatar reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 97¢ $1,996 $2,047 +$51 (+3%)
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $1,912 $1,940 +$28 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 92¢ 94¢ $1,753 $1,776 +$24 (+1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $1,400 $1,410 +$10 (+1%)
Macron out by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,123 $1,137 +$14 (+1%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $778 $796 +$19 (+2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 92¢ 95¢ $642 $667 +$25 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 84¢ 80¢ $672 $644 −$28 (-4%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 62¢ 92¢ $354 $523 +$169 (+48%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 62¢ $339 $504 +$165 (+49%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 100¢ $453 $500 +$46 (+10%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? No 67¢ 98¢ $335 $492 +$157 (+47%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $480 $483 +$3 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 40¢ $560 $395 −$165 (-29%)
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Yes 64¢ 90¢ $189 $265 +$77 (+41%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $262 $264 +$3 (+1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $253 $257 +$4 (+2%)
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $194 $195 +$1 (+1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 81¢ 99¢ $101 $124 +$22 (+22%)
Will Curaçao be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 98¢ 100¢ $93 $95 +$2 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13,300 +$6,700 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8,674 −$4,300 -50%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $5,490 +$591 +11%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $20,161 +$959 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10,520 +$4,280 +41%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4,290 +$6,710 +156%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,200 −$4,200 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,414 +$586 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,467 −$67 -2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6,500 −$6,500 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,800 −$467 -12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $16,020 +$5,980 +37%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $760 −$760 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,208 +$1 +0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16,230 +$6,810 +42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4,100 +$5,900 +144%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,800 +$8,200 +456%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 13 $276 +$120 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,650 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2,520 +$28 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4,572 +$99 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $2,284 +$82 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6,300 −$6,300 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 11 $3,380 +$126 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $3,000 +$100 +3%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $3,552 −$3,052 -86%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 04 $240 −$240 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $6,300 −$6,300 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $984 +$317 +32%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $2,823 +$77 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $849 +$25 +3%
Netanyahu out by May 31? Jun 01 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $154 +$19 +12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1,288 +$112 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $216 −$216 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $9,524 −$3,624 -38%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $4,560 −$4,560 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $10,646 +$1,439 +14%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $7,577 +$13,423 +177%
Will Noel Thomas win the 2026 Galway West by-election? May 24 $48 +$3 +7%
Will Helen Ogbu win the 2026 Galway West by-election? May 24 $2,006 −$36 -2%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $1,080 $0 -0%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $11,114 +$886 +8%
Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 24 $1,255 −$719 -57%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $4,904 +$7,096 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 29¢ $1,355 33m
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 28¢ $66 40m
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 29¢ $13 57m
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 29¢ $1 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $209 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 28¢ $63 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 28¢ $1,160 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $2,697 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $108 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,421 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $875 2h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $12 2h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $14 3h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 4h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $8 4h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $122 7h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 8h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 8h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $0 8h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 9h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 9h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 10h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 10h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 11h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 96¢ $2,028 12h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $94 13h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 13h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $597 13h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $148 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $3,300 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52,430.56 · official $52,430.21 (match) · 1517 history records