Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:42:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9825…d6d8 crypto 854 markets active 2d ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$271 (-4%) realized −$271 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate52%445W / 409L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day28.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$37
14 days−$114
30 days−$288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$385
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 278 -3.6% -12.8% 43% 35% -11.5%
≤30d 567 -6.5% -15.4% 48% 37% -15.2%
≤90d 854 -6.5% -15.4% 52% 31% -14.9%
all 854 -6.5% -15.4% 52% 31% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 31% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 25% -23.0%
15% -30.9% 21% -30.5%
20% -37.7% 17% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$271
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses445 / 409
Open positions0
Markets (closed)854 / 854
History coverage51d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day28.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 854 Trades
no open positions (233 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$7 +756%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$5 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$4 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2099 history records