Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:43:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9825…ee55 other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$3
other 26% +$2
politics 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 3% +$1
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 0% -10.0%
all 48 -1.2% -10.6% 35% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage491d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $46 −$3 -6%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $73 −$1 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $83 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $93 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $11 +$1 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $39 −$1 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $43 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jan 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Dec 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Dec 10 $1 −$1 -78%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 26 $9 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? May 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 11 $9 $0 -2%
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 10 $9 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 09 $10 $0 -2%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 09 $10 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from Africa? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 07 $11 $0 -1%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 07 $4 $0 -5%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Arkansas win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 27 $12 $0 -1%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 22? Mar 24 $13 $0 +3%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 21 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Mar 02 $12 $0 -0%
Jumper airdrop in Q1 2025? Feb 25 $11 +$2 +19%
New Mexico vs. Boise State Feb 18 $11 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $40 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $40 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $40 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $40 5h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $36 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $2 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $7 31h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $14 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $24 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $39 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $32 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $33 46h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $40 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $12 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $28 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $40 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $14 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $25 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $11 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $33 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $44 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $40 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $13 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $27 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $44 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $44 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $12 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records