Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:06:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x981e…239b world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 337d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%10W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% +$34
world 24% +$2
other 16% −$2
tech 3% −$46
weather 2% +$1
sports 2% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -11.0% -19.5% 44% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 9 -11.0% -19.5% 44% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 22 -6.2% -15.1% 32% 0% -9.7%
all 37 -4.8% -13.9% 27% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -22.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

337d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses10 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage337d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 14¢ 14¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+4%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $96 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $83 +$4 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $261 −$3 -1%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 11 $38 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $96 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -9%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $66 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $149 −$2 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $9 −$1 -16%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 22 $164 +$2 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $150 −$46 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $147 +$1 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 20 $369 +$34 +9%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $606 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $105 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $552 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $552 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $582 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $572 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 14 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 14 $117 −$1 -1%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 14 $121 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 14 $7 $0 -1%
Will turnout be less than 900000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary Jul 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 14 $126 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Jul 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on Jul Jul 14 $125 +$1 +1%
Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 14 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 14 $117 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 13 $117 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Jul 13 $129 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $34 58m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $30 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $88 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $9 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $79 34h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 85¢ $46 36h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 85¢ $51 36h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 85¢ $96 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 47h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $46 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $41 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $15 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $68 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $44 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $38 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $90 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $47 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $23 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $38 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $3 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $32 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $4 2d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 72¢ $3 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $96 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $96 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.57 · official $35.57 (match) · 147 history records