Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:52:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x981c…0cd1 crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (322 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,351 (-21%) realized −$1,317 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day322.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,568
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (322 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-47.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -41.4% -47.0% 30% 30% -49.5%
≤30d 44 -41.4% -47.0% 30% 30% -49.5%
≤90d 44 -41.4% -47.0% 30% 30% -49.5%
all 44 -41.4% -47.0% 30% 30% -49.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover322.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.0% 30% -49.5%
10% ← realistic here -52.1% 30% -54.4%
15% -56.7% 27% -58.8%
20% -61.0% 27% -62.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$135 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$1,317
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 31
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage1d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day322.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 21¢ 22¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 0¢ 24¢ $0 $12 +$12 (+0%)
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET Up 3¢ 1¢ $56 $10 −$46 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$8 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $246 −$231 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 26 $90 +$50 +56%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $182 −$173 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $73 +$49 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $128 +$77 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $206 +$159 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $103 +$107 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $133 −$125 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $185 −$185 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $186 −$186 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $208 +$303 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $184 −$175 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 26 $180 −$175 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 26 $222 −$211 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $131 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $210 −$200 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $124 +$37 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $193 −$193 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $170 −$160 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $187 −$176 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $170 −$160 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $104 +$100 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $153 −$143 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $127 −$120 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $229 −$220 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $126 +$404 +319%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $341 −$322 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $186 +$169 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $154 −$146 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $188 −$20 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $191 −$180 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $336 −$120 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $145 +$127 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $64 −$60 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $12 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $10 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $12 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $12 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $12 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $12 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $23 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $23 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $23 17m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.67 · official $50.48 · 343 history records