Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:29:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

98
0x981b…1a89
other · 60 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$6 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 43
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage60d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%
Chart Positions 3 History 57 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Under 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-16? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-16? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-07? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 15? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-09? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Over 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-25? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 15? Up 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-08? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 2? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 5? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-14? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-16? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-09? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
CD Palestino leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -72%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +116%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1 +$1 +128%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $2 +$6 +299%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-07? May 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? May 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 5? May 05 $3 −$2 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 5? May 05 $4 −$2 -47%
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 05 $1 +$4 +414%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $2 +$7 +365%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 5? May 04 $2 −$2 -77%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? May 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $2 +$8 +414%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 4? May 04 $3 $0 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 4? May 04 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $1 +$4 +344%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $2 +$4 +213%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 2? May 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 55% +$12
crypto 25% −$14
sports 19% −$6
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 41m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 44¢ $0 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
CD Palestino leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 1h
CD Palestino leading at halftime? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $1 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 28¢ $1 20h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 38¢ $0 21h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1 21h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $1 37h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $3 41h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 45h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 2d
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $1 3d
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 4d
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 30¢ $1 4d
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 28d
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 28d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 28d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 28d
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 28d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 29d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 30d
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -44.7% -50.0% 29% 14% -49.5%
≤30d 19 -47.3% -52.3% 26% 16% -52.5%
≤90d 57 -17.4% -25.2% 25% 21% -13.6%
all 57 -17.4% -25.2% 25% 21% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 21% -13.6%
10% -32.4% 21% -21.9%
15% -38.9% 21% -29.4%
20% -44.9% 19% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.98 (match) · 88 history records