Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:44:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x981a…09f8 crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 517d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-1%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate86%50W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$15
other 7% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 2% −$37
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 23 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 58 -3.8% -13.0% 86% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -10.5%
10% -21.3% 0% -19.1%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.9%
20% -35.9% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

517d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses50 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage517d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $102 $101 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 28? Jun 29 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $101 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 22 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026? Jun 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 30? May 31 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? May 28 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? May 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? May 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 3? Apr 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 20? Mar 24 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? Mar 06 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 2? Mar 02 $117 −$18 -16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 26? Feb 26 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 19? Feb 19 $116 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $660 on February 17? Feb 18 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 16? Feb 16 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 15? Feb 15 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $116 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on February 13? Feb 13 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 12? Feb 12 $116 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Feb 11 $2 $0 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $114 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Jul 02 $1 $0 -17%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in April? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jack Dorsey confirm he is Satoshi before May? May 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $102 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $75 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $27 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $102 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $101 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $101 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $101 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $85 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $16 6d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $101 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $101 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $101 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $101 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $101 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $101 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $100 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $100 25d
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $100 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $100 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $100 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $100 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $100 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $100 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $100 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $99 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $99 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $99 96d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $99 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.33 · official $101.33 (match) · 124 history records