Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:10:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x981a…5edd sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$83 (-24%) realized −$84 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$36
other 9% −$24
crypto 6% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +9.8% -0.7% 75% 75% +4.5%
≤30d 4 +9.8% -0.7% 75% 75% +4.5%
≤90d 26 -18.2% -26.0% 50% 46% -29.5%
all 26 -18.2% -26.0% 50% 46% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 46% -29.5%
10% -33.1% 38% -36.3%
15% -39.5% 19% -42.4%
20% -45.5% 15% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage66d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 69¢ 70¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $21 +$7 +32%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $15 +$5 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $9 +$7 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $18 −$18 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 18 $15 +$3 +23%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 20 $7 $0 +7%
Will FaZe make a roster move before May? Apr 20 $6 +$1 +14%
Will FURIA win IEM Rio 2026? Apr 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $2 $0 +32%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 17 $15 +$5 +34%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 17 $24 −$9 -36%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 15 $12 +$13 +105%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $10 +$5 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 15 $10 +$15 +152%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 14 $10 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $21 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $20 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $15 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $16 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $9 31h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 47¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 23¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B BUY TheMongolz 69¢ $18 30d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo BUY Natus Vincere 81¢ $15 33d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY FUT Esports 48¢ $10 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $7 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $7 60d
Will FaZe make a roster move before May? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 60d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Timberwolves 38¢ $2 61d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs SELL Vitality 100¢ $2 61d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs BUY Vitality 75¢ $2 62d
Warriors vs. Suns BUY Warriors 42¢ $10 62d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Hornets 59¢ $10 62d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs SELL Vitality 100¢ $21 62d
Will FURIA win IEM Rio 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $25 63d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs BUY Vitality 74¢ $15 63d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $15 63d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs BUY Spirit 92¢ $14 63d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs BUY MOUZ 29¢ $10 63d
Warriors vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 70¢ $10 64d
Magic vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 50¢ $10 64d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B SELL FURIA 100¢ $25 64d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY FURIA 48¢ $12 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.61 · official $26.99 · 56 history records