Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:31:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
98 0x9814…29ed sports 337 markets active 3h ago coverage 538d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$74 (+2%) realized +$78 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate59%192W / 132L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days+$7
14 days−$23
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$80
other 24% −$18
world 1% −$8
politics 1% $0
finance 0% +$6
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +6.3% -3.8% 57% 56% -7.4%
≤30d 295 +11.7% +1.0% 58% 56% -8.9%
≤90d 302 +13.7% +2.8% 59% 57% -5.8%
all 324 +13.3% +2.5% 59% 54% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 54% -8.2%
10% -7.3% 52% -17.0%
15% -16.3% 40% -25.0%
20% -24.5% 30% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

538d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$78
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses192 / 132
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions13
Markets (closed)324 / 337
History coverage538d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) KT Rolster Challengers 70¢ 100¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+43%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 66¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 36¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 28¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 32¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 65¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-81%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Down $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 +$5 +92%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +38%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $3 +$4 +124%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $9 −$7 -76%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $11 −$2 -17%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $6 +$2 +38%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $6 +$3 +54%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $6 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$4 +343%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +46%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 165.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $6 +$5 +85%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 $0 -12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 +$4 +73%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +72%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$2 +43%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $7 $0 +5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $4 −$1 -14%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$2 +172%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $4 +$2 +42%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$2 -24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +24%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $8 +$12 +150%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $6 +$7 +115%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $6 +$1 +25%
Raducanu vs. Rakhimova: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $6 +$4 +65%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Set Handicap: Shevchenko (-1.5) vs Sachko (+1.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $6 −$3 -54%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$1 +24%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +109%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 71¢ $3 2h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 69¢ $3 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $2 4h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $1 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $2 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $1 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $1 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $1 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $2 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 11h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $1 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $2 12h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $5 13h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 68¢ $3 13h
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Atlanta Dream 73¢ $2 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $1 14h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 22¢ $1 14h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL Vitality 100¢ $5 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $4 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $4 15h
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 15¢ $1 15h
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 15¢ $0 15h
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 15¢ $0 15h
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 15¢ $0 15h
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 15¢ $0 15h
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 16h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 16h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 61¢ $3 16h
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $0 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.70 · official $58.16 (match) · 921 history records