Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:41:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9812…5c4a crypto 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$280 (-3%) realized −$180 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%56W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$313
7 days−$1,041
14 days−$822
30 days−$822
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$637
weather 3% −$172
other 1% −$47
world 1% −$28
politics 1% −$37
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 +34.1% +21.3% 32% 29% -24.8%
≤30d 147 +22.5% +10.8% 38% 35% -18.9%
≤90d 147 +22.5% +10.8% 38% 35% -18.9%
all 147 +22.5% +10.8% 38% 35% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.8% 35% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here +0.2% 33% -26.6%
15% -9.5% 29% -33.7%
20% -18.3% 27% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$41 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$180
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses56 / 91
Open positions9
Markets (closed)147 / 156
History coverage12d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 17? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $84 −$80 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 17? Jun 15 $52 −$31 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 17? Jun 15 $52 −$33 -64%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 15 $53 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $68 −$40 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$31 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$55 +103%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 15 $366 +$27 +7%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $21 −$12 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $83 −$5 -7%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 −$2 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$24 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $24 −$8 -33%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $18 −$3 -15%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid Jun 14 $9 −$3 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $21 −$14 -65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $21 +$18 +85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $26 −$3 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $31 +$8 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$7 +66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $31 +$7 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $36 +$7 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $15 −$14 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $47 −$17 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $123 −$12 -10%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $21 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 09 $11 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 09 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $134 −$19 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $32 −$14 -44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $105 −$14 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 08 $374 −$350 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 08 $138 +$240 +174%
Will Trump say "Ay Ay Ay" in June? Jun 08 $52 −$27 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 08 $232 −$220 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 08 $309 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $158 −$150 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $105 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $84 39m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 17? SELL Yes 20¢ $21 41m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 17? SELL Yes 15¢ $19 41m
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 29¢ $47 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $42 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $38 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $27 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $53 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $78 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $53 53m
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 29¢ $53 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $107 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $52 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 86¢ $152 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 89¢ $36 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 11h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $18 11h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $16 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.67 · official $24.67 (match) · 292 history records