Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x980d…d7e0 crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$35 (+6%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day55.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$73
sports 5% +$36
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -19.7% -27.3% 52% 48% -15.4%
≤30d 25 -19.7% -27.3% 52% 48% -15.4%
≤90d 25 -19.7% -27.3% 52% 48% -15.4%
all 25 -19.7% -27.3% 52% 48% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.3% 48% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -34.3% 32% -23.5%
15% -40.6% 24% -30.9%
20% -46.5% 16% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$15 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day55.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$5 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$10 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $80 −$65 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $58 +$28 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$14 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$36 +119%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $20 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $33 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $25 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $33 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $30 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $7 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $29 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $32 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 1¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 3¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records