Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:39:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x980c…6e0a crypto 795 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (129 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$356 (+3%) realized +$357 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%432W / 362L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day128.9pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$720
7 days−$461
14 days−$405
30 days−$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$363
sports 12% +$83
other 7% −$37
world 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (129 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 359 -7.0% -15.8% 54% 52% -17.5%
≤30d 794 -3.5% -12.7% 54% 49% -12.2%
≤90d 794 -3.5% -12.7% 54% 49% -12.2%
all 794 -3.5% -12.7% 54% 49% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover128.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 49% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 41% -20.6%
15% -28.7% 29% -28.3%
20% -35.7% 20% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$357
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses432 / 362
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)794 / 795
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day128.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 794 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 52¢ 50¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $78 −$51 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $36 −$31 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $77 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$19 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 28 $77 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 28 $103 −$31 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $16 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $28 −$25 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $19 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 28 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $40 +$63 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 28 $19 −$9 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $19 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $38 −$12 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$6 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $52 −$16 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$29 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $27 −$10 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 28 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 28 $9 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $16 +$3 +21%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 28 $25 +$9 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$6 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $11 +$3 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $27 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $72 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.02 · official $18.20 · 3500 history records