Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:12:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9808…6c1a sports 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$187 (-8%) realized −$187 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate66%37W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day44.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$125
other 24% +$8
crypto 5% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -7.7% -16.5% 66% 16% -17.7%
≤30d 56 -7.7% -16.5% 66% 16% -17.7%
≤90d 56 -7.7% -16.5% 66% 16% -17.7%
all 56 -7.7% -16.5% 66% 16% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 16% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 9% -25.6%
15% -31.8% 4% -32.8%
20% -38.5% 0% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$17 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$187
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses37 / 19
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage7d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day44.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $55 +$3 +6%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $57 +$2 +3%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $55 +$2 +3%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $47 +$8 +18%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $20 −$12 -60%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $15 −$5 -31%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $46 −$13 -28%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $34 +$12 +34%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +41%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $80 −$37 -46%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 13 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $106 +$10 +10%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$6 -15%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 −$5 -22%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $70 +$6 +9%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $40 +$5 +12%
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 12 $65 +$1 +2%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $70 +$3 +5%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $70 +$1 +1%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 12 $60 +$6 +10%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 12 $49 +$14 +29%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $75 −$27 -36%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $10 +$5 +46%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $65 +$2 +4%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $65 +$2 +4%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $50 −$14 -29%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $65 +$12 +18%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $67 +$3 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $58 +$9 +16%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Jan Choinski Jun 10 $11 +$3 +29%
ITF Wichita: Pavle Marinkov vs Ryan Colby Jun 09 $11 $0 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $7 +$1 +9%
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik Jun 09 $10 $0 -1%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $13 −$3 -24%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +7%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $12 +$1 +6%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Stuttgart Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs James Duckworth Jun 09 $11 +$1 +8%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Timofey Skatov Jun 09 $10 $0 +5%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $9 +$1 +6%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin SELL Roman Safiullin 100¢ $58 33m
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 91¢ $6 1h
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 94¢ $6 1h
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 95¢ $6 1h
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 95¢ $6 1h
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 95¢ $6 1h
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 94¢ $25 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu SELL Katerina Siniakova 99¢ $58 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Katerina Siniakova 96¢ $57 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova SELL Marie Bouzkova 99¢ $57 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 95¢ $25 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 96¢ $5 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 96¢ $25 1h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 100¢ $55 2h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 84¢ $47 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $34 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 12h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $14 12h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 12h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 70¢ $10 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $25 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $25 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under $1 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $2 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $2 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $2 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $2 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $2 15h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $3 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 308 history records