Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:17:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
98 0x9808…3ccc sports 224 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$539 (+18%) realized +$541 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%129W / 93L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$200
14 days+$375
30 days+$717
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$542
other 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +65.7% +49.9% 69% 69% +28.7%
≤30d 99 +26.3% +14.2% 71% 70% +21.7%
≤90d 222 +2.9% -6.9% 58% 57% +8.3%
all 222 +2.9% -6.9% 58% 57% +8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 57% +8.3%
10% -15.8% 54% -2.1%
15% -23.9% 46% -11.5%
20% -31.4% 38% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$541
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses129 / 93
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)222 / 224
History coverage57d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 80¢ 79¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$5 +48%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$4 +172%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina Jun 17 $5 +$39 +759%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $102 +$113 +111%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $10 +$20 +194%
Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +35%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 14 $50 +$15 +31%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $101 +$29 +29%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5 Jun 14 $20 −$14 -72%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$5 +52%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $51 +$74 +146%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $101 +$33 +32%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 120.5 Jun 11 $10 +$15 +146%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 09 $101 +$55 +55%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 09 $5 +$4 +76%
1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 09 $15 +$11 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 108.5 Jun 09 $20 +$12 +60%
OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $2 +$2 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $101 +$33 +32%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $201 +$44 +22%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 06 $2 +$2 +109%
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $2 +$1 +70%
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 109.5 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: China PR (-1.5) Jun 05 $15 +$7 +46%
Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 0.5 Jun 04 $10 +$2 +21%
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $1 +$1 +70%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $101 +$21 +21%
1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 04 $20 −$20 -99%
OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $11 +$12 +107%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $103 +$131 +127%
Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 0.5 May 31 $10 +$2 +23%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 31 $50 +$22 +44%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 31 $101 +$29 +29%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 31 $5 +$4 +73%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 108.5 May 31 $5 +$4 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $2 14h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombi BUY 18¢ $5 14h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina BUY 11¢ $5 38h
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 77¢ $101 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5 SELL Over 20¢ $6 4d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Knicks 76¢ $50 4d
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 6.5 BUY No 59¢ $5 4d
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5 BUY Over 68¢ $20 4d
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 BUY Yes 51¢ $15 4d
Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 0.5 BUY Yes 73¢ $10 5d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 BUY Under 75¢ $101 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 40¢ $51 7d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Spurs 85¢ $100 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 120.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 7d
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 BUY Yes 54¢ $5 7d
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 BUY Yes 65¢ $10 8d
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 8d
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 9d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 64¢ $101 9d
1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Knicks 57¢ $15 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 108.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 9d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.50 · official $197.50 (match) · 381 history records