Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:42:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9807…157b sports 354 markets active 0h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,818 (+9%) realized +$11,431 · open +$387
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%144W / 194L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$391per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$1,577est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$7,207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,252
7 days+$2,225
14 days+$6,447
30 days+$5,224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$12,411
other 1% +$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +18.1% +6.9% 49% 49% +4.5%
≤30d 128 +11.0% +0.4% 42% 42% +0.0%
≤90d 273 -19.4% -27.1% 30% 30% -28.4%
all 338 +9.5% -0.9% 43% 43% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 43% -1.1%
10% -10.4% 42% -10.6%
15% -19.1% 41% -19.2%
20% -27.0% 41% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$579 vs −$366 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$7,207
Realized+$11,431
Unrealized+$387
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses144 / 194
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$1,577
Open positions16
Markets (closed)338 / 354
History coverage236d
Avg bet$391
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 338 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1,680 $1,709 +$29 (+2%)
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse Vit Kopriva 42¢ 88¢ $399 $831 +$432 (+108%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Elias Ymer vs Timofey Skatov Timofey Skatov 35¢ 40¢ $585 $668 +$83 (+14%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Gustavo Heide Nicolas Mejia 39¢ 87¢ $203 $457 +$254 (+126%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Juan Manuel Cerundolo 32¢ 32¢ $420 $416 −$3 (-1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Matej Dodig Matej Dodig 30¢ 30¢ $399 $406 +$7 (+2%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Veronika Podrez Veronika Podrez 39¢ 38¢ $402 $386 −$15 (-4%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Francisca Jorge vs Lina Gjorcheska Lina Gjorcheska 33¢ 32¢ $396 $378 −$18 (-5%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Zizou Bergs Daniel Altmaier 39¢ 36¢ $402 $376 −$26 (-6%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Pol Martin Tiffon Pol Martin Tiffon 36¢ 34¢ $400 $372 −$28 (-7%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Tristan Boyer vs Andrea Pellegrino Andrea Pellegrino 38¢ 34¢ $399 $352 −$47 (-12%)
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Clara Tauson 44¢ 38¢ $403 $340 −$63 (-16%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Anhelina Kalinina Anhelina Kalinina 45¢ 30¢ $405 $270 −$135 (-33%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Storm Hunter Storm Hunter 36¢ 36¢ $120 $122 +$2 (+1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Joanna Garland vs Tyra Caterina Grant Joanna Garland 45¢ 20¢ $158 $72 −$86 (-54%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Clervie Ngounoue Clervie Ngounoue 38¢ 38¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $401 +$935 +233%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $5 +$7 +138%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar Jun 23 $401 +$556 +139%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 23 $101 +$124 +122%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Celine Naef vs Joanna Garland Jun 23 $384 +$866 +225%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 23 $405 +$495 +122%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Mia Pohankova Jun 23 $810 +$525 +65%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys Jun 23 $347 −$343 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Mananchaya Sawangkae Jun 23 $146 −$145 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Nuria Brancaccio vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia Jun 23 $403 −$396 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 23 $405 −$405 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 22 $400 +$55 +14%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Petra Marcinko Jun 22 $408 +$564 +138%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer Jun 22 $401 +$639 +159%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daria Snigur vs Anhelina Kalinina Jun 22 $400 +$680 +170%
Mallorca Championships: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 22 $402 +$95 +24%
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 22 $396 −$396 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $402 +$628 +156%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $397 +$803 +202%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Anastasia Jun 21 $403 −$397 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Daria Snigur Jun 21 $400 −$400 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Veronika Erj Jun 21 $412 −$402 -98%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 20 $414 +$726 +175%
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 20 $38 −$1 -4%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hanne Vandewink Jun 20 $380 −$377 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $402 −$402 -100%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $401 −$395 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $400 −$400 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $396 −$396 -100%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 18 $108 +$132 +122%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $400 +$530 +133%
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 18 $391 −$386 -99%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 18 $399 −$399 -100%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski Jun 18 $402 −$402 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $400 −$400 -100%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $399 −$399 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $405 +$495 +122%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $400 +$600 +150%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $392 −$388 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $411 +$889 +216%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche Jun 17 $399 −$399 -100%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $400 −$399 -100%
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 17 $399 −$399 -100%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $3 +$5 +156%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $400 +$510 +127%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $402 −$402 -100%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $400 −$400 -100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 14 $402 −$402 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Clervie Ngounoue BUY Clervie Ngounoue 38¢ $3 11m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Matej Dodig BUY Matej Dodig 30¢ $5 12m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Anhelina Kalinina BUY Anhelina Kalinina 45¢ $94 14m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Anhelina Kalinina BUY Anhelina Kalinina 45¢ $14 14m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Anhelina Kalinina BUY Anhelina Kalinina 45¢ $14 14m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Anhelina Kalinina BUY Anhelina Kalinina 45¢ $14 14m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Anhelina Kalinina BUY Anhelina Kalinina 45¢ $4 14m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Anhelina Kalinina BUY Anhelina Kalinina 45¢ $4 14m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Matej Dodig BUY Matej Dodig 30¢ $15 16m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Matej Dodig BUY Matej Dodig 30¢ $11 16m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Matej Dodig BUY Matej Dodig 30¢ $368 16m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Matej Dodig BUY Matej Dodig 30¢ $0 16m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Anhelina Kalinina BUY Anhelina Kalinina 45¢ $69 19m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Storm Hunter BUY Storm Hunter 36¢ $4 32m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Storm Hunter BUY Storm Hunter 36¢ $4 37m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Clervie Ngounoue BUY Clervie Ngounoue 38¢ $1 44m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Clervie Ngounoue BUY Clervie Ngounoue 38¢ $47 48m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Storm Hunter BUY Storm Hunter 36¢ $1 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Storm Hunter BUY Storm Hunter 36¢ $1 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Storm Hunter BUY Storm Hunter 36¢ $114 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Joanna Garland vs Tyra Caterina Grant BUY Joanna Garland 45¢ $47 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Gustavo Heide BUY Nicolas Mejia 39¢ $1 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Gustavo Heide BUY Nicolas Mejia 39¢ $1 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Gustavo Heide BUY Nicolas Mejia 39¢ $163 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Francisca Jorge vs Lina Gjorcheska BUY Lina Gjorcheska 33¢ $379 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Francisca Jorge vs Lina Gjorcheska BUY Lina Gjorcheska 33¢ $0 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Anhelina Kalinina BUY Anhelina Kalinina 45¢ $91 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Francisca Jorge vs Lina Gjorcheska BUY Lina Gjorcheska 33¢ $11 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Francisca Jorge vs Lina Gjorcheska BUY Lina Gjorcheska 33¢ $0 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Anhelina Kalinina BUY Anhelina Kalinina 45¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,206.87 · official $7,207.47 (match) · 2782 history records