Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9806…7c5f sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$310 (-12%) realized −$310 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%18W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$19
14 days−$29
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$298
other 22% −$18
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -20.7% -28.2% 56% 56% -12.4%
≤30d 12 -40.5% -46.2% 42% 42% -19.2%
≤90d 31 -29.1% -35.8% 48% 45% -16.8%
all 37 -26.2% -33.2% 49% 46% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.2% 46% -21.7%
10% -39.6% 30% -29.2%
15% -45.5% 24% -36.0%
20% -50.8% 19% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$42 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$310
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses18 / 19
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage118d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$25 +81%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $150 +$16 +11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $101 +$31 +30%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +41%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $56 +$28 +51%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 +$9 +84%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 +$11 +112%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 −$7 -71%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $50 +$11 +22%
Club Atlético de Madrid leading at halftime? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $20 +$17 +85%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 06 $20 +$3 +16%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 06 $60 +$23 +39%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Wildcard - Map 2 Winner Apr 06 $100 +$11 +11%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 05 $20 +$2 +11%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 04 $12 −$12 -98%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 02 $30 −$29 -98%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Delhi Capitals Apr 01 $30 −$29 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Sunrisers Hydera Mar 28 $37 +$26 +70%
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa Feb 22 $250 −$200 -80%
T20 Series Australia vs. India, Women: Australia vs India Feb 21 $50 +$103 +206%
T20 World Cup: Afghanistan vs Canada (Game 1) Feb 19 $600 +$89 +15%
T20 Series Australia vs. India, Women: Australia vs India Feb 19 $50 −$50 -100%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) Feb 19 $200 −$200 -100%
T20 World Cup: Italy vs West Indies (Game 1) Feb 19 $200 +$22 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $55 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $30 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 90¢ $150 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 71¢ $50 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 100¢ $131 4d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 76¢ $101 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 99¢ $84 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 65¢ $56 6d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 13d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 28d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 28d
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 34d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 34d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 34d
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 34d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $62 34d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 34d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 34d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 34d
Club Atlético de Madrid leading at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 48d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 56¢ $21 64d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 52¢ $20 64d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore BUY Mumbai Indians 31¢ $10 65d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? SELL Yes 99¢ $37 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records