Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:28:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

98 0x9806…0367 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover

Total PnL +$12,388 (+68%) realized +$12,352 · open +$36

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +75% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip

Net edge+46%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate36%4W / 7L

Drawdown80%max

Avg bet$1,016per market

Trades / day9.8pace

Fees−$528est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$4,914now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)+58.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-4.7%	-13.8%	40%	40%	+22.5%
≤30d	11	+75.0%	+58.3%	36%	36%	+21.3%
≤90d	11	+75.0%	+58.3%	36%	36%	+21.3%
all	11	+75.0%	+58.3%	36%	36%	+21.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+58.3%	36%	+21.3%
10%	+43.1%	36%	+9.7%
15%	+29.3%	36%	-0.9%
20%	+16.6%	27%	-10.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +75% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$603 vs −$161 · ×3.75 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$4,914

Realized+$12,352

Unrealized+$36

Win rate (resolved)36%

Wins / losses4 / 7

Est. fees paid−$528

Open positions7

Markets (closed)11 / 18

History coverage18d

Avg bet$1,016

Trades / day9.8

Drawdown80%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	13¢	$1,427	$1,637	+$210 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	18¢	$1,470	$1,586	+$116 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$735	$629	−$106 (-14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	7¢	$735	$562	−$173 (-24%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	63¢	62¢	$400	$397	−$3 (-1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Switzerland	36¢	36¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$11	$4	−$7 (-68%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$1,013	+$712	+70%
Spread: England (-1.5)	Jun 17	$462	+$952	+206%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$724	−$713	-98%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$1,280	−$55	-4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$102	−$100	-98%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$3,746	−$10	-0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 09	$103	−$101	-98%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$2,408	−$46	-2%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 06	$770	+$120	+16%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 04	$1,404	+$627	+45%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 04	$1,279	−$100	-8%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$303	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$101	1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	BUY Switzerland	36¢	$102	1h
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY England	32¢	$462	18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$1,013	18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	22¢	$123	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	22¢	$102	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	22¢	$10	4d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	1¢	$10	4d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	1¢	$10	4d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	6¢	$10	4d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Spurs	11¢	$131	4d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	7¢	$10	4d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	9¢	$51	4d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	19¢	$102	4d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Knicks	65¢	$1,742	4d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Knicks	47¢	$1,250	4d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	16¢	$103	4d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	15¢	$103	4d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	17¢	$102	4d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	18¢	$102	4d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	19¢	$102	4d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	19¢	$102	4d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	23¢	$102	4d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	22¢	$102	4d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	25¢	$51	4d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	25¢	$102	4d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	25¢	$102	4d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	25¢	$10	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$102	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,913.68 · official $4,913.68 (match) · 195 history records