Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:56:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
98 0x9805…257e politics 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$10
politics 41% −$10
sports 6% +$17
crypto 4% −$1
tech 4% −$1
economics 2% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 107 -1.7% -11.0% 6% 3% -9.7%
all 120 -0.4% -9.9% 8% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 6% -9.5%
10% -18.5% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.4% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×10.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 110
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)120 / 122
History coverage116d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $32 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $31 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $172 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $150 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $155 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $148 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $144 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $169 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $133 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $164 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $143 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $366 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $181 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 18 $188 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $323 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $177 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $156 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $179 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $155 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $297 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $180 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $358 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $164 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 11 $199 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $171 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $135 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $346 $0 -0%
Will Estonia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 09 $172 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $371 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $190 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $58 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $152 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $149 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $197 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $179 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $188 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $179 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $182 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $19 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 2h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 2h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 19h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 19h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 40h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 40h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 2d
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $26 5d
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $26 8d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $19 8d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $19 9d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $28 10d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $28 11d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $29 11d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $29 12d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 13d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 14d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 15d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 15d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $23 15d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $23 16d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 23d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 23d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $172 23d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $172 25d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $150 25d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $150 26d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $155 26d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $155 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.96 · official $46.96 (match) · 334 history records