Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:28:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9801…a806 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%14W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$1
politics 16% $0
crypto 15% $0
sports 13% +$1
culture 9% $0
other 5% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +6.7% -3.5% 100% 0% -3.5%
≤30d 4 +2.1% -7.6% 75% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 10 -1.4% -10.8% 40% 0% -9.3%
all 38 -1.4% -10.8% 37% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage308d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $41 $41 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $5 $0 +7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $45 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $44 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $3 −$1 -17%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $1 $0 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $27 +$1 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 18 $16 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $16 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 28 $2 $0 -10%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 22 $33 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 21 $1 $0 -4%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 20 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? Aug 20 $9 −$3 -29%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? Aug 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 19 $43 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $41 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $5 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $5 13h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 32h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 34h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $45 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $45 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $22 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $22 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 3¢ $3 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $1 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $2 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $1 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $45 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $45 30d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 31d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 31d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 31d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $14 32d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $26 32d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.32 · official $41.32 (match) · 151 history records